Jim Miller on Politics
Last updated:
2:57 PM, 9 November 2017
Jim Miller on Politics
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Judging By The Accounts Of Trump's Trip To China I Have
Seen So Far, the
was no match for the lion.
but reasonably accurate, description of Trump's failures.
(For the record, Trump did not actually
to Xi, in public anyway.
It occurs to me that Xi would probably rather be referred to as a tiger than a lion.
He can take it up with Machiavelli, should they meet in a hot place, in the future.)
"The One County In America That Voted In A Landslide For
Both Trump And Obama"
&It is in the Midwest, though not necessarily
you might expect it to be.
In a nation increasingly composed of
places that voted for one side or the other by at least 20 percentage points — Howard
County, Iowa (population 9,332), stands out as the only one of America’s 3,141
counties that voted by more than 20 percentage points for Obama in 2012 and
Trump in 2016. Democrats can’t credibly blame Howard County’s enormous
in just four years on a last-minute letter to Congress, voter ID laws or
Russia-sponsored Facebook ads.
(Actually Democrats can do all of those things, and some probably will & but
they shouldn't.)
David Wasserman thinks we can draw national conclusions from this fascinating
&I am not so sure about that, but I do think it
is interesting in itself.
Bitter, But Funny:
(For the record:
&The accusations against Trump are not as serious, or extensive,
as those against, for instance, Harvey Weinstein.
&But they are troubling.)
What The Virginia Exit Poll Tells Us:
look at the
Which is more work, but more fun for election nerds like me.
&(For instance, I
learned that there was little difference in the vote by income group & which is
not necessarily what one would expect, when the president is a self-proclaimed
billionaire.)
Or you can look at analyses from, for instance, the
The coming weeks will feature a lot of Trump-friendly Republicans insisting he has
nothing to do with last night’s top-to-bottom shellacking of the GOP in Virginia,
and a lot of not-so-Trump-friendly Republicans he’s got everything to do with the
electoral disaster.
If last night had brought a routine disappointment for Republicans – say, the
statewide candidates losing by a few points and only a handful of state assembly
seats flipping to the Democrats – the “blame Trump” argument would be
&But last night was the worst night for Republicans in Virginia in a long
&Gillespie lost by the worst margin for a Republican gubernatorial candidate
in the state since 1985.
&No GOP statewide candidate hit 48 percent.
Perhaps more significantly, Republicans entered Election Day with a 17-seat
margin in the state assembly and lost at least 13, with seven seats too close to
call this morning.
Trump’s approval rating in Virginia was just 40 percent, according to the exit
&Among the 57 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump’s job
performance, Democrat Ralph Northam beat Republican Ed Gillespie, 87 percent
to 11 percent.
The intensity gap strongly favored Northam, too. Nearly half of Virginia voters,
47 percent, strongly disapproved of Trump — and Northam won 95 percent of
that vote.
&In other words, nearly 45 percent of the votes cast on Tuesday were
from strong Trump disapprovers who voted for Northam.
Half of Virginia voters said Trump was a reason for their vote — with twice as
many saying they were voting to oppose Trump (34 percent) as to support
him (17 percent).
&Northam won 97 percent of voters for whom opposing Trump
was a factor.
You'll notice that the two are in broad agreement.
(I suppose I should look for a Trump-friendly analysis, too, just for completeness &
but I won't promise to do so.)
"Wolves Beat Dogs in Teamwork Test"
&Specifically, at
Wolves are known to cooperate in hunting and even in raising one another’s pups, but
they can seem pretty intolerant of one another when they are snapping and growling
around a kill.
So researchers at the
at the University of Vienna decided to compare the performance of wolves and dogs
on a classic behavioral test.
To get a food treat, two animals have to pull ropes attached to different ends of
&The trick is that they have to pull both ropes at the same time.
Chimps, parrots, rooks and elephants have all succeeded at the task.
The wolves mostly su the dogs mostly failed.
&"In a previous study, dogs that had been highly trained — not at the
rope pull test, but for other tasks — were much better
If you are like me, you will immediately think of some human analogies & and wonder
how good very young children are at that task.
(I noticed, as you probably will, that James Gorman is inconsistent in his reporting of the results.
&It looks to me as if a careless editor cut out some of the original article.
showing the test.)
Will Trumpistas Recognize That Donald Trump Is Partly
Responsible For Yesterday's Republican Defeats?
Instead, they will say that Republican candidates would have done better had they been
more loyal to Trump.
I suppose that, at some point, all his losses will break through some Trumpistas'
psychological defenses, but I don't think we are anywhere near that point, yet.
(Trump is encouraging them to come to that
It's A Grumpy Cartoon:
&Which suits my mood,
(Yesterday's election results were more or less what I have been expecting ever since
it became obvious that Donald Trump was gong to win the Republican nomination.
sure do wish I had been wrong.)
What Most Stories Left Out Of Their Descriptions Of
Devin Patrick Kelley:
The Texas church shooter who shot dead 26 people and injured 24 others was an
outcast' who 'preached his atheism' online.
What the stories almost never mention in similar cases:
&Whether the man grew up with
a father in his life.
&(Usually he didn't, as far as I can tell.)
In Washington State's 45th District Special Election, Democrat
Manka Dhingra Is Running Against Donald Trump:
&Which may be a better
strategy than running against her actual opponent,
It's true.
&Democrat Dhingra has used Donald Trump to attack Englund.
One her Dhingra’s ads says, “Republican Jinyoung Englund said she really respects
Donald Trump as president.”
Dhingra also says that it was Trump's election that motivated her to run in this special
election, and that she is a "tough" prosecutor, and an Eastside "soccer mom".
Jinyoung Englund was running against Seattle, but in recent ads has been campaigning as
the heir to the late, and much respected,
Neither campaign is
The contest between Democrat Manka Dhingra and Republican Jinyoung Lee Englund
is by far the most expensive legislative race in Washington state history.
than $8.5 million total already has been raised by the two candidates or spent
by independent political committees supporting or opposing their campaigns.
The outcome of Tuesday’s vote is expected to determine which party controls
the state Senate.
&A Republican-led coalition currently holds a one-vote majority
in the Senate, while Democrats control the state House and the governor’s office.
Combined, the Englund and Dhingra campaigns have spent nearly twice as much
as the previous record-holder — the 2014 race for the same seat.
&That year,
Sen. Andy Hill, R-Redmond, fended off a Democratic challenger.
It will be interesting to see which strategy works in that Democratic-leaning district.
(I can't vote in that election, since I am in the neighboring 48th district.
Local journalists (and Democratic operatives) are saying that, if Dhingra wins, Democrats will
have full control of the West Coast, all three governorships, and all six houses of the
legislatures.
&They are forgetting that little state up
there is an independent governor and the Republicans control the state senate.
Alaska Republicans & a fractious bunch & would control the state house,
too, if they hadn't split.
It's A Pigovian Tax, Professor Mankiw:
my frivolous answer to his
(But not entirely frivolous.
&I do think there are departments at almost every
university that
so large that a Pigovian tax on them would be appropriate.)
Most Of Us have felt
from time to time, whether we admit it, or not.
This Week's Collection Of Political Cartoons from
My favorites:
&Steve Breen's Internet troll, Chip Bok's swamp creature, and Michael
Ramirez's nightstand.
Worth Reading:
&Bernard Goldberg's
"The War Between Trump and the Media: Good for T Bad for Us".
In a way - not a good way — both sides get something out of this turmoil: Donald
Trump gets to give his base the red meat they crave, which draws them even
closer to their savior.
&And journalists get to unload on a man many of them
believe is unfit for office — and at the same time, make money.
&Bashing Donald
Trump is very good for business.
&Ask Stephen Colbert or the folks at Saturday
Night Live or the commentators at MSNBC if you don't believe me.
Goldberg ends by hoping journalists and Trump will behave better.
&I hope so, too, but
I don't expect Trump to change & or most journalists.
Dueling Protests & Both Organized By Russian Agents:
&Here's the
Federal lawmakers on Wednesday released samples of 3,000 Facebook ads purchased
by Russian operatives during the 2016 presidential campaign.
&The ads conveyed
the wide range of influence Russian-linked groups tried to enact on Americans – but
one set of ads in particular hit close to home.
Last year, two Russian Facebook pages organized dueling rallies in front of the Islamic
Da’wah Center of Houston, according to information released by U.S. Sen. Richard
Burr, a North Carolina Republican.
Heart of Texas, a Russian-controlled Facebook group that promoted Texas secession,
leaned into an image of the state as a land of guns and barbecue and amassed
hundreds of thousands of followers.
&One of their ads on Facebook announced
a noon rally on May 21, 2016 to “Stop Islamification of Texas.”
A separate Russian-sponsored group, United Muslims of America, advertised a “Save
Islamic Knowledge” rally for the same place and time.
Would the protesters from each side admit, even now, that they had been duped by
the Russians?
&I fear that most wouldn't, that some on each side would see this
story as "fake news".
Vladimir Putin would much rather have us fighting each other, than fighting him.
(The old Soviet Union often used front groups in Western democracies, but I can't recall
any examples of them using dueling front groups.)
This New Yorker Cartoon made me
(Partly because the dog looks so happy.)
Coming Soon
Plan 17 Conservatives
FDR and Waterboarding
How Long Do Wars Last?
Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, and Crescent Wrenches
De-Lawyering and Attorney General McKenna
Coming Eventually
JFK and Wiretaps
Green Republicans
The Rise and Fall and Rise of Black Voting
Abortion, Cleft Palates, and Europe
Kweisi Mfume's Children
Public Opinion During Other US Wars
Dual Loyalties
The Power Index
Baby Dancing
Jocks, but no Nerds
The Four Caliphs
Best Posts
Strange Obama
The Unknown Bush
University Reform
Uncorrected Mistakes
Vote Fraud
The Gang of Four
Assignment Desk
Common Mistakes
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