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Cash In on the Coming Drone Wars
As unmanned aerial vehicles go commercial, money will be made
By , Aviation, Auto & Transportation Writer
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Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) & better known as drones & have revolutionized the art of war with their often-lethal mix of remote control, stealth and surveillance/strike capability. Now, new laws and valuable commercial applications could spark a , giving defense contractors a lift in these leaner times.
Lockheed Martin&s (NYSE:) acquisition this month of UAV company Chandler/May is an early salvo in what could become a &drone war& among defense contractors seeking new revenue streams to offset hefty Pentagon budget cuts. Since Chandler/May was a key UAV subcontractor to Textron (NYSE:) subsidiary AAI, the deal could kick off a shopping spree among defense/aerospace companies jockeying for position in the drone market.
Northrop Grumman (NYSE:), Boeing (NYSE:) and privately held General Atomics are all major players in this market, too. If they can leverage their huge investments in military UAVs into civilian markets, it could ease the pain of shrinking defense budgets and beef up the bottom line for shareholders.
How big of a bonanza can these so-called dual use technologies be when they cross over into the civilian world? You&re using dual-use technology right now to read this article: The Internet that also powers Cyber Monday sales was the brainchild of the Defense Department&s Advanced Research Projects Agency. And the GPS functionality in your mobile phone started out as a satellite navigation system for the U.S. military.
The commercial market potential of drones could be the next such blockbuster. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) believes 30,000 drones could be over U.S. skies by 2020. UAVs will be the most dynamic growth sector of the world aerospace market this decade & with $89 billion spent over that time, according to a .
Because UAVs can go where no human can (or wants to) go, they&re ideal for applications like border control, law-enforcement surveillance or infrared heat detection for firefighters. Many federal, state and local public-safety agencies already have obtained waivers from the FAA to operate drones in U.S. civil airspace.
These drones come in all sizes. Some local law-enforcement agencies currently are using Draganfly Innovations& X6, AeroVironment&s (NASDAQ:) Qube and Vanguard Industries& Shadowhawk, which are between three- and seven-feet long. Raytheon&s (NYSE:) nine-foot long Cobra is being used for military research, while NASA and U.S. Customs & Border Protection are using General Atomics& Predator B, which is 35-feet long and has the wingspan of a commercial jet.
UAVs offer a compelling value proposition in mapping, remote monitoring of oil fields and industrial sites or for agricultural and weather applications. Outside the U.S., paparazzi are using small drones to photograph celebrities & and gossip site TMZ has already filed for a drone permit to do the same thing here.
The FAA&s $64.4 billion funding bill passed earlier this year requires the agency to fully integrate UAVs into the nation&s airspace by September 2015. Although privacy concerns have delayed the FAA&s first step &
& the law has powerful friends on Capitol Hill, and the agency still is under the gun to meet the deadline.
Bottom Line: The coming drone wars create two opportunities for investors. First,&despite gloom and doom forecasts for small-cap defense/aerospace stocks facing the fiscal cliff, I think AeroVironment could be a bargain buy for investors now.
AVAV shares slumped about 10% since it reported a wider-than-expected loss and slower drone sales in September. But AeroVironment&s forecast for the full fiscal year ending in April beat expectations. I like AVAV in 2013. It doesn&t hurt that the company also develops electric vehicle charging stations & it has deployed 10,000 of them in North America so far.
Second, I think drone commercialization presents an attractive revenue stream for mega-cap defense/aerospace contractors. Fiscal cliff or no, defense cuts are a fact of life for companies like LMT, NOC, RTN, TXT and BA. Developing new growth will be at least as important as cost-cutting as these companies strive to deliver shareholder value in a down defense market.
And keep an eye out for more acquisitions like Lockheed Martin&s Chandler/May deal as commercial drones begin to take off in a big way.
While the FAA still has to iron out safety and national security issues before vast flocks of drones start zipping around your rooftop, investors in the right UAV stocks stand to gain big when the drone market soars.
As of this writing, Susan J. Aluise didn&t own any securities mentioned here.
Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, /2012/11/cash-in-on-the-coming-drone-wars/.
&2017 InvestorPlace Media, LLC
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Reyaad Khan (left) and Ruhul Amin were killed by an RAF drone strike
Drone strikes are often controversial. They seem to allow the attacking nation to remain literally and metaphorically above the fray. Their own service personnel are not at risk. And drones also seem to blur the boundaries between warfare on the one hand and counter-terrorism and law enforcement on the other. No wonder then that the announcement by the British government that it was
of the so-called Islamic State group in Syria was controversial. British warplanes and drones are not generally operating against targets in Syria. Britain is not at war there. The man killed was a British citizen.Human rights activists and opponents of capital punishment were quick to warn that the Cameron government was starting down a similar path to that pursued extensively by the United States, for whom the drone has become the counter-terrorist weapon of choice.
The British government insisted that the individual in question was plotting terror attacks in Britain and that there was no other feasible way of thwarting these plans. This illustrates the extraordinary utility of armed drones - or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as they are also known - but also of the unanswered legal and moral implications of their broadening use. Until now only a few countries have had the technology and the reconnaissance capabilities to allow them to use drones in this way. The US and Israel are probably the leading technological players with a number of their allies operating their systems.
Image caption
A General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper stands on the runway in California
But the use of armed drones is spreading. Earlier this month
- identified as a locally made Burraq - to attack a target in the tribal area of North Waziristan. The apparent sophistication of this strike surprised many Western experts, hinting perhaps at the source of the technology involved, . While the list of countries that have actually used armed drones in anger is small, it is slowly growing. China and Iran too are believed to have operational armed drones and many other countries have expressed an interest in acquiring them. Even non-state actors such as Hezbollah have sought to use them, A study in June by the US think tank the Center for a New American Security noted that some
of one kind or another and at least 30 of them were either operating or seeking to develop or acquire armed versions.Many of the world's most capable drones bear a striking resemblance, with technology either shared to some extent or directly copied.
Image caption
Clockwise from top left: MQ-9 Reaper, MQ-1 Predator, Hermes 900, Wing Loong
The US Air Force's MQ-9 Reaper, a medium- to high-altitude endurance drone capable of flying at higher speeds and altitudes than its predecessor, the MQ-1 Predator. Reaper is also used by the RAF.Israel's Hermes 900. Manufacturer: Elbit. Medium-altitude long endurance. First used in Operation Protective Edge over Gaza.China's Wing Loong. Manufacturer: Chengdu Aircraft Design & Research Institute. Programme started in 2005 but many see it as being based on the MQ-1 Predator.While some people see armed drones as in some sense offering an "unfair" advantage because none of the drone-operating nation's personnel are put at risk, this is not the chief concern of strategists. It would be naive in the extreme to imagine that war - distasteful as it is - should in some sense be "fair".
Minimising the risk to one's own forces and maximising the threat to the enemy is after all a large part of what warfare is all about. Nonetheless armed drones are seen as significantly destabilising weapons.
Image caption
It emerged in 2013 that RAF pilots operating on British soil had flown drone missions over Afghanistan
Their ability to respond rapidly, to loiter over an area for hours and to pick out a small target and strike it with a high degree of precision, all mean that they are weapons that are likely to be resorted to with increasing frequency. The fact that they involve less risk to the personnel of the nation using them and the fact that their strikes are discrete and small-scale, again make them an attractive option.A June 2014
suggested that drones should thus be treated as a distinct class of weapon.
Constraints on drone proliferation, it argued, should be strengthened, and the US, as the major user, should establish norms for their use. (Critics of the US would argue that the way Washington has used drones in the post-9/11 world has already established a highly destabilising norm).Clearly drones are not just weapons of war. The US has conducted hundreds of drone strikes, often in countries where it is not technically at war. The effectiveness of this drone campaign has often been called into question. Has it really diminished the size of the targeted groups - and how many innocent civilians have been killed in the process?Drones straddle the line between war and counter-terrorism, which in many Western countries is largely a civil responsibility. No wonder then that their critics sometimes describe their use as "extra-judicial killing".
Of course governments counter by insisting, as the British government did for its recent Syria strike, that their use is wholly legal under international law.The security dilemmas are compounded by the spread of civil drone technology. This too is moving ahead rapidly - you can buy relatively sophisticated, although of course unarmed, "flyers" in many High Streets - and this technology is likely to be "weaponised" by criminal or terrorist groups. The strategic, legal and moral problems posed by the use of armed drones are immense and will only increase as the weapons spread to more and more countries.
Some would like clear international understandings regarding the transfer of armed drones and their technologies, as well as some kind of international understanding - treaty or otherwise - that would circumscribe the use of this unique class of weapon.
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